NFL Super Bowl MVP Odds Betting Guide From FlagOh

If you’ve ever opened a sportsbook app right before the Super Bowl and stared at the NFL Super Bowl MVP odds in confusion, you’re not alone. The lines seem to move all week, every betting site shows slightly different prices, and every TV analyst seems to have a different “lock” for the award. This guide is built to calm that chaos.

At FlagOh, we believe being a fan is about more than just watching the game – it’s about understanding what the numbers are really saying. We’ll walk you through who the market favors for the Pete Rozelle Trophy, how the MVP odds are built, what history says about quarterbacks versus everyone else, and how to size small, sensible bets. Whether you are a seasoned sharp or just following along for fun, you will get:

• A live-inspired odds table with real pre-game examples.
• A historical breakdown of winners by position and role.
• Simple strategy steps to make confident decisions.

By the end of this post, you won’t just be guessing which prices are fair—you’ll understand the story behind the numbers. Let’s dive in.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and entertainment only. Odds change quickly, may differ by sportsbook and location, and nothing here is personalized betting or financial advice. Always check the latest lines at licensed operators in your jurisdiction, and please bet responsibly.

NFL Super Bowl MVP Odds 2025 Market Snapshot

The quickest way to understand the market is to look at where the money is going. For the 2025 season (Super Bowl LIX), the odds paint a clear picture of the hierarchy.

MVP Odds Table From Favorites To Long Shots

For context, most major US sportsbooks agree on a tight group of contenders. Here is an illustrative snapshot of how the NFL Super Bowl MVP odds look across the market during the playoffs (American odds and implied probabilities):

Player	Team	Position	Example Odds	Implied Probability
Patrick Mahomes	Kansas City Chiefs	QB	+105	≈ 48.8%
Saquon Barkley	Philadelphia Eagles	RB	+240	≈ 29.4%
Jalen Hurts	Philadelphia Eagles	QB	+375	≈ 21.1%
Travis Kelce	Kansas City Chiefs	TE	+1500	≈ 6.2%
Xavier Worthy	Kansas City Chiefs	WR	+3000	≈ 3.2%
A.J. Brown	Philadelphia Eagles	WR	+3200	≈ 3.0%
Chris Jones	Kansas City Chiefs	DT	+6000	≈ 1.6%
Jalen Carter	Philadelphia Eagles	DT	+6000	≈ 1.6%

Example prices based on projected lines from regulated sportsbooks; actual odds will vary.

Implied probability includes the bookmaker’s margin.

What this table tells you in 10 seconds:

The market views this largely as a two-horse race between the quarterbacks. The steep drop-off after the QBs (from around +400 out to +1500 and beyond) reminds us how difficult it is for a skill player to beat a quarterback in the voters’ eyes. While names like Puka Nacua or T.J. Watt are talented, the math suggests they need a perfect game script to win.

Favorites, Contenders, and Long Shots Explained

Regardless of the specific names in any given year, you can mentally group the MVP odds into three distinct “bands” of risk and reward:

• The Favorites (< +400): These are almost exclusively the starting quarterbacks of the two teams. They win the award most often because the ball is in their hands on every play. The trade-off is the payout; a win here doubles your money, but rarely more.
• The Contenders (+400 to +1500): This group includes elite skill players—the WR1s or star Running Backs. Here, you are trading lower win probability for a much more attractive payout.
• The Long Shots (≥ +1500): These are the lottery tickets. Defensive stars, tight ends, or RB2s fall here. They need a “headline game”—multiple touchdowns or a game-changing turnover—to steal the spotlight.

Real-world translation:

A $20 bet on a favorite like Stafford (+160) profits about $32. That same $20 on a long shot like T.J. Watt (+4500) profits $900. The payout is massive, but that kind of deep underdog is roughly ten to twenty times harder to land based on probability. That trade-off is the heart of the betting market.

What These Odds Mean in Real Probability

American odds can look like intimidating algebra, but the math is simple. Positive odds (like +105) simply tell you how much profit you make on a $100 bet.

More importantly, you can convert them to percentages. A price of +105 implies roughly a 48.8% chance of winning. A long shot at +3000 implies just a 3.2% chance. Keep in mind, these are “implied” probabilities that include the sportsbook’s fee (the vig). Your true chance of winning is always slightly lower.

The takeaway: Don’t just see a big “plus” number as free money. Treat it as a tiny, specific chance at a huge reward.

How NFL Super Bowl MVP Odds Work 

If you are new to futures betting, the movement of the lines can feel random. Here is what is actually happening behind the scenes.

Odds Formats and Payout Examples

You might see odds displayed in different formats depending on your settings.

• American: +375 (Bet $100 to win $375).
• Decimal: 4.75 (Bet $1 to return $4.75 total).
• Fractional: 15/4 (Win 15 units for every 4 staked).

They all describe the same payout. If you are betting small stakes, say $10 on a player at +375, you would profit $37.50 for a total return of $47.50. Many disciplined bettors use “units” (where 1 unit = 1% of their bankroll) to keep their spending consistent, regardless of how tempting the big numbers look.

What Moves the Lines Before Kickoff

MVP odds are living numbers; they breathe and react to news.

• Injuries: A hamstring tweak to a star receiver doesn’t just hurt his odds; it might shorten the odds of the quarterback (who now has to do more) or the running back (who might get more carries).
• The Narrative: Public money often chases stories. If the media spends two weeks talking about a veteran’s “last ride,” casual fans will bet on him, driving his price down (and making him less valuable to bet on).
• Sharp Money: Professional bettors analyze matchups in the trenches. If they see a weakness in the offensive line, they might hammer the odds of a pass rusher, causing books to adjust the price for everyone else.

Should you bet early? If you like a popular favorite, usually yes, before the public money arrives. If you like a long shot, waiting might let you see more injury reports.

How Live Odds Change During a Game

Once the ball is kicked off, the market becomes a rollercoaster. A single long touchdown can cut a receiver’s odds from +3000 to +900 in seconds. Conversely, an early interception can turn a favorite into an underdog instantly.

While live betting is exciting, it is highly volatile. The markets move faster than you can research. It is best treated as entertainment or a way to “hedge” your pre-game bets, rather than a primary strategy.

Super Bowl MVP Favorites And Long Shots

Now that you understand the mechanics, let’s look at the players themselves. Who historically dominates this award?

Why Quarterbacks Dominate The Super Bowl MVP

There is no escaping the data: Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP award 34 times in the first 59 games. That is well over 50%. In the modern era, that rate is even higher.

The reason is simple. The ball runs through the QB on every play. Even if a receiver has a great game, the quarterback gets credit for throwing those yards. Unless the QB plays poorly, the default vote usually goes to the signal-caller of the winning team. This is why you will rarely find a starting QB with odds longer than +250.

How Skill Players Can Win The Super Bowl MVP

Non-QBs absolutely can win, but the bar is set much higher.

• Wide Receivers: Typically need 100+ yards and at least one, often two, touchdowns. Think Cooper Kupp or Julian Edelman.
• Running Backs: Need high volume and scoring. They usually need to dominate the game on the ground and catch passes.
• Defenders: This is the hardest path. A defensive MVP usually requires a low-scoring game (where the offense struggles) and a “splash play” like a strip-sack or a pick-six (think Von Miller or Ray Lewis).

Finding Value In Super Bowl MVP Odds

Real value often lies in “mispriced usage.” If a Running Back gets 8 carries in the first quarter but hasn’t scored yet, his live odds might still be long. But the usage tells you the team is committed to him. That is a value bet—spotting the opportunity before the touchdown happens.

What History Tells Us About Today’s Odds

History doesn’t predict the future, but it gives us guardrails.

Winners by Position: Looking at the archives, Quarterbacks are the undisputed kings. Wide Receivers are a distant second, followed by Running Backs and Linebackers. Crucially, only one player in history (Chuck Howley) has ever won MVP while playing for the losing team. Modern voting guidelines and media habits also lean heavily toward the winning quarterback, which makes upset MVP stories even rarer.

The Golden Rule: If you are betting on a player to win MVP, you are implicitly betting on his team to win the Super Bowl.

How Often Do Long Shots Win?

• Favorites (QBs): Win >55% of the time.
• Mid-Range (WRs/RBs): Win ~25-30% of the time.
• Long Shots (Defense/ST): win less than 15% of the time.

If you strictly bet on long shots because you like the big payouts, understand that you will lose far more often than you win. The “smart money” often builds a portfolio: a solid bet on the favorite to cover costs, sprinkled with small “pizza money” bets on a long shot for the thrill.

How to Bet NFL Super Bowl MVP Odds in 3 Smart Steps

You don’t need a complex algorithm to bet smarter. Just follow this framework.

Step 1: Link the MVP to the Winner

Since the winner comes from the winning team, compare the MVP odds to the Moneyline. If the Chiefs are -125 to win the game, and Mahomes is +105 to win MVP, the odds are very correlated. Sometimes, betting the QB is just a better way to bet on the team winning.

Step 2: Shop for Lines

Never settle for the first price you see. One book might have Drake Maye at +180, while another has him at +205. On a $50 bet, that difference is $12.50 in free profit for the same outcome. Always check 2-3 licensed sportsbooks to ensure you aren’t leaving money on the table.

Step 3: Bankroll Management

Decide your budget before you open the app. A healthy split might look like this:

• Favorites: 1-2% of your bankroll.
• Long Shots: 0.25% – 0.5% of your bankroll.

This keeps you in the game without risking your entire Super Bowl budget on a defensive tackle scoring a touchdown. It also leaves room in your budget for other fun parts of Super Bowl night, from props and pizza to a few new team flags for the living room.

Understanding NFL Super Bowl MVP odds changes how you watch the game. You stop seeing just plays and start seeing narratives, value, and probability. Whether you place a wager or just use this guide to sound smarter at the watch party, remember to enjoy the spectacle. Check the lines, trust your gut, and if you want your living room to look as sharp as your analysis, visit FlagOh to gear up with game-day flags and banners for the Big Game.