A fast, data-first look at Bills vs Dolphins: a quick table for spread, total, moneyline, and the implied score, plus model projections and matchup levers you can actually use. Prices move with injuries and weather—apply the formulas, compare books, and only act when the edge is real. Get your space game-day ready with FlagOh.

Bills vs Dolphins Odds Snapshot & Implied Score

Start here to see the market at a glance for Bills vs Dolphins. This snapshot compresses spread, total, moneyline, and the derived implied score into one scannable grid, with weather and key absences alongside for instant context. Read the Consensus row first, then scan the books for outlier numbers you can actually bet.

Quick Answers Table

*Book / Source*	*Spread (BUF/MIA)*	*Total*	*Moneyline (BUF/MIA)*	*Implied Score (BUF–MIA)*
*Consensus (range)*	−9.5 −8.5 → −10)	48.5 ( 47.5 → 48.5)	≈ −500 / +400 ( −590 → −475 / +430 → +380)	29.0 – 19.5
*FanDuel*	−9.5 (−115) / +9.5 (−105)	48.5 (O −115 / U −105)	−590 / +430	29.0 – 19.5
*FOX Sports*	−10 / +10	48.5	−521 / +392	29.25 – 19.25
*Oddshark screen*	−10 / +10 (both −110)	48.5 (−110)	−485 / +370	29.25 – 19.25

Formulas (use exact market numbers when you publish):
• Implied score = Total ÷ 2 ± Spread ÷ 2 (“favorite gets + Spread/2”).
• Implied win % from American odds:
– For positive (+A): 100 / (A + 100)
– For negative (−A): −A / (−A + 100)
• Break-even at −110 ≈ 52.38%.

*Source (Moneyline)*	*Implied Win % (BUF)*	*Implied Win % (MIA)*	*Book Hold/Vig*	*No-Vig Win % (BUF)*	*No-Vig Win % (MIA)*
*FanDuel Sportsbook (−590 / +430)*	85.51%	18.87%	4.38%	81.92%	18.08%
*FOX Sports (−521 / +392)*	83.90%	20.33%	4.22%	80.50%	19.50%
*Odds Shark (−485 / +370)*	82.91%	21.28%	4.18%	79.58%	20.42%

Formulas (reference): See the Odds formulas above for implied score, American-to-probability, and hold/no-vig.

Consensus Lines Across Top Sportsbooks: Compare 3–5 books, note hold (≈4–6%) and limits near kickoff, and take the best number/lowest juice.

Implied Score & Win Probability — Formulas & Example

Walk a live example from the table: plug the total and spread to compute BUF/MIA implied points, then convert each moneyline to win probability. This makes pricing transparent and turns picks into falsifiable predictions.

Treat half-point swings or five-cent price gaps as meaningful, especially near key numbers. If nothing beats your fair line, log the prices and wait—late moves often create better entries. Always refresh the timestamp when you update, and grade your decisions against the closing numbers afterward.

Prediction & Key Matchups

What this section does: turns film + data into bettable edges—publishing a fair line with confidence bands, identifying matchup levers (pressure vs time-to-throw, YPRR vs coverage, red-zone tilt), and layering injury/venue context.

Bills vs Dolphins Prediction:

We publish fair spread/total, win probability, edge %, and confidence bands, then compare to current market odds.

Methodology & Inputs:

Windows: last 4 and last 8 games, plus season-to-date (opponent-adjusted).
Core metrics: EPA/play, success rate, explosive play %, pressure rate, red-zone TD%, pace.
Simulation: ~10,000 Monte Carlo runs → distributions for spread/total and fair ML.
Transparency: cite sources + update time.

Model Output vs Market:

Show projected spread and total vs consensus, with edge % and confidence intervals. If the edge is small or the juice is high, pass; track CLV (Closing Line Value) over time.

Matchups That Move Numbers:

Passing: pressure rate vs time-to-throw; QB CPOE; WR YPRR; explosive pass %.
Rushing/early downs: early-down success; short-yardage EPA.
Scoring levers: red-zone TD% and third-down EPA shift totals and volatility.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Match Player Stats:

Spot leverage by pairing player form with opponent tendencies.

*Bucket*	*Bills*	*Dolphins*	*Why it matters*
*QB EPA/CPOE*	EPA/play (Josh Allen): 0.31 on 61 plays (CPOE unavailable from this source)	EPA/play (Tua Tagovailoa): −0.56 on 27 plays (CPOE unavailable)	Per-play efficiency correlates with fair ML & win probability.
*WR YPRR (top 2)*	Keon Coleman 2.11, Khalil Shakir 1.31 (2025 to date)	Tyreek Hill 1.74, Jaylen Waddle 1.36 (2025 to date)	YPRR signals reception/yard props and target distribution.
*Pressure rate (DEF)*	Sack% proxy: 9.09% (2025)	Sack% proxy: 3.03% (2025)	Pressure affects drive success and totals when the true pressure% isn’t published.

Act only when your fair number clears a key threshold (≈ 0.5–1.0 pts on spread, 1.5–2.0 pts on total, or +2–3% above break-even on the ML). If signals conflict, skip the side/total and pivot to derivatives that fit the strongest lever (e.g., QB rush yards when pressure projects up, WR receptions when YPRR/target share trend up). Keep stakes disciplined (flat units or fractional Kelly) and move on.

Recent Bills vs Dolphins History

What this section does: frames pace, explosives, and situational context using the last five meetings—useful for narrative checks, but don’t overfit.

Glossary: ATS = Against the Spread; O/U = Over/Under

*Date*	*Site*	*Final (BUF–MIA)*	*ATS Result (vs. closing spread)*	*O/U Result (vs. closing total)*
*Nov 3, 2024*	BUF	30–27	MIA +6.5 covered (BUF −6.5)	Over (49 → 57)
*Sep 12, 2024*	MIA	31–10	BUF +2.5 covered (MIA −2.5)	Under (49 → 41)
*Jan 7, 2024*	MIA	21–14	BUF −2.5 covered	Under (48 → 35)
*Oct 1, 2023*	BUF	48–20	BUF −3 covered	Over (52.5 → 68)
*Jan 15, 2023 (WC)*	BUF	34–31	MIA +14 covered (BUF −14)	Over (44.5 → 65)

How to use it: divisional rematch dynamics, home/road splits, and red-zone efficiency trends can inform expectations—but let current injuries, matchup rates, and weather drive the final number.

Market Drivers: Line Movement, Injuries & Weather

Between posting and kickoff, prices react to three forces—information (practice reports → inactives), environment (sustained wind, heat index, roof status), and money (limits, screens, and consensus). Use this section to set alert thresholds around key numbers (e.g., 3/7/10), watch participation trends rather than single tags, and sanity-check totals against real-time weather rather than day-ahead forecasts.

Bills vs Dolphins Injury Report & Inactives

The Bills vs Dolphins injury report drives late line moves. Track DNP/LP/FP tags through the 48-hour window and re-price once inactives drop (~90 minutes pre-kick). A starting CB OUT often nudges the total up (explosive pass rate ↑), while a LT OUT can depress QB efficiency and widen the spread.

Quick read:

Participation: DNP → LP → FP trends matter more than one-off tags.
Snap-share: If WR1 is limited, check WR3/TE1 routes/run-block splits for prop pivots.
Adjustments: Move 0.5–1.0 pt for premier OL/CB; more for QB.

Open→Close Timeline & CLV (Closing Line Value)

Chart open → limits up → steam → close. Note catalysts (injury report, weather bump, market consensus). Log your ticket price vs close to measure CLV and expected ROI.

Weather & Venue Thresholds

Wind > 15 mph: deep passing rates fall; totals often compress.
Heat/humidity: pace and rotation change in Miami; heat index matters for second-half efficiency.
Roof/field status: surface and shade patterns can influence footing and WR separation.

Before you place or pass, run a quick triage: 1) confirm the latest participation report and anticipated inactives window, 2) reprice with current now-cast conditions, 3) scan multiple books for the best number/juice. If the market never gifts value, preserve bankroll, pivot to props that align with the day’s conditions, and document what moved the screen for next time.

Props & Picks

Data-Backed Prop Angles & Same-Game Parlay Ideas

QB/WR/RB props: QB passing yards/TDs, WR receptions/YPRR, RB rush + receiving splits tied to opponent tendencies.
SGP construction: Correlate pace, pressure, and target share. Consider alt lines, anytime TD, QB rush yards, and prudent ladder bets.
Risk note: Avoid negative correlation traps; respect book limits.

Picks Card

List sides/totals/props with unit size, price, book, and time posted. Keep a public pick sheet and link back to the CLV note in the Odds section.
Finish your game-day setup with a Bills vs Dolphins House Divided flag by FlagOh.

Bankroll Guardrails

Break-even table: −105 (51.22%), −110 (52.38%), −115 (53.49%), −120 (54.55%).
Staking: flat units or modest Kelly fraction; log unit P/L, variance, and outcomes.
Compliance: bet with legal books only (geo-fenced; KYC); know push rules (2-way vs 3-way markets).

Bills vs Dolphins Mini-FAQ

Short, punchy answers to the most common pre-game betting questions—implied score math, moneyline conversions, why lines jump near kickoff, injury impact, weather thresholds, SGP basics, and push rules. Each reply is one line and points you to the deeper section if you want more.

How do you calculate the implied score for Bills vs Dolphins?
Use Total ÷ 2 ± Spread ÷ 2 (favorite gets the plus). Then convert moneylines to probabilities to sanity-check.

What does −3.5 mean in this matchup?
The Bills must win by 4+ to cover; the Dolphins cover at +3.5 with a loss by ≤3 or any win.

How do I convert −120 moneyline to win probability?
For negative odds: 120 / (120 + 100) = 54.55%.

Why did the line move before kickoff?
Injury updates, weather shifts, limits increasing, or sharp action changing the market consensus (and book hold/juice).

Which injuries matter most this week?
Offensive tackles, CB1/CB2, and QB health typically move the number most; check DNP/LP/FP and the 90-minute inactives.

Does Miami wind or heat change the total?
Yes. Wind > 15 mph often suppresses explosives; high heat index can slow late-game pace.

What are smart same-game parlay legs?
Correlated legs only (e.g., pressure edge → QB rush yards ↑; WR target share ↑ → receptions/alt lines). Avoid opposing outcomes.

Is it better to bet early or close to game time?
Early for numbers before limits/steam if you trust your edge; late for confirmed injuries/weather and market efficiency.

What are push rules on spreads/totals?
In 2-way markets, landing on the number typically pushes (stake returned). 3-way markets handle ties differently—read the rules.

How much is home-field advantage worth here?
Typically 1.5–2.0 points, but varies by matchup, travel, and weather.

Before you act, sanity-check prices in the Odds Snapshot, re-verify participation/inactives, confirm your book’s rules, and log the entry so you can grade it against the close. If something isn’t covered here, use page search or jump links to find the right section fast. For Bills vs Dolphins, shop a few books for the best number and lowest juice, compare it to your fair line, and wait for the 90-minute inactives after double-checking wind and heat. If the edge isn’t there, skip, log your price, and use postgame highlights/usage to refine your next props. When you’re set for kickoff, finish the vibe with team or NFL House Divided flags from FlagOh.